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VistaPrint is
scheduled to report their fiscal first quarter 2009 results
after the market closes on Tuesday, October 28. Based on our
analysis, we at
eChristianInvesting are expecting VPRT to report better than
expected top-line results that beat Wall Street’s consensus
expectations.
Analyst Expectations
We are
forecasting revenues of $116.0 million and EPS of $.28. This
would represent a 46% increase in revenues from last year’s
$79.5 million in the same period. The current analyst consensus
calls for revenues of $114.4 million and $.28 EPS. On July 28,
the company gave 3rd quarter guidance for revenue of
$112 – 116 million and EPS of $.25 - .28.
While we
believe that VPRT will deliver a decent quarter, it’s expected
that they will join the long list of company’s that have reduced
their guidance forecasts. Current company guidance calls for
full-year revenues of $540 – 570 million. That translates into
35 – 42% growth, which seems unrealistic in this current
environment.
Share Performance
VistaPrint’s
shares have been hammered this year - dropping 46% year to date.
However, that tracks relatively close to the overall markets
performance as the Nasdaq is down over 41% in the same time
period.
Valuation
Shares are
now trading at only 11x consensus 2009 EPS estimates. This is a
discount to the relative valuations of their peer group.
However, we are expecting analyst’s to cut estimates following
the company’s quarterly earnings report. The shares appear to be
fully valued and would expect a further sell-off following the
earnings report.
Recommendation: Hold with a $22 price target.
At the time this article was published, the author did not have
a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this
article.
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